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| Cedefop Forecast | PRINT | | Common European Trends in Skills Supply and Demand |
Thessaloniki (GR), April 2010 – Cedefop has published a medium-term forecast up to 2020 on skills supply and demand in Europe. It shows that while general trends are common throughout Europe, there are substantial differences among Member States.
The report updates Cedefop's 2007-08 forecasts with improved data and methods and includes the medium-term impact of the economic crisis. Developments in the skills supply are categorised by age, gender and country; the demand for skills, by qualification, occupation, economic sector, and country.
The skills supply: Which qualifications will the European workforce have?
For nearly all countries, the share of the workforce with high qualifications is projected to be greater in 2020 than in 2010; the share of people with low qualifications is generally projected to fall. Taken together, shares of medium-skilled and highly-skilled people are converging across Europe. But the percentage of those with medium-level qualifications shows greater variation among countries.
The demand for skills: Which jobs will be available across Europe?
The need to replace departing workers ("replacement demand") means that even occupations with net job losses will remain viable sources of employment (a total of about 73 million jobs). Net employment change ("expansion demand") in 2010-2020 is expected to add over seven million new jobs, mostly in knowledge-intensive and skill-intensive occupations (high-level managerial, professional, and technical jobs).
In terms of expansion demand, however, some occupations will experience losses. The total number of job openings (replacement plus expansion) is forecast at around eighty million, bringing total employment in 2020 to slightly less than its peak in 2008.
Some projected changes by sector across the EU:
- Demand for service occupations such as sales, security, catering, and caring will increase by more than two million.
- Demand for office clerks will decrease by around a million.
- Over four million job losses are projected for skilled manual workers.
- An increase of around two million is forecast for the demand for elementary occupations.
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